General Comments
- Too much diversification. It's true that one should diversify to spread risk. But diversification on 49 stocks is a bit too much. Just as the risk is spread, so are your gains. Even if a stock which you have assigned only 0.5 % increases 5x (which is a bit of a really long shot), the impact on the portfolio would be about 2.5 %. Obviously, then it also depends on what you are expecting from the investment. I realize I also have too many stocks. I am trying to reduce them.
- On specific stocks I will write my comments later.
Guidelinea for self
- Never assign more than 10% of the portfolio to a particular stock.
- Choose to assign stocks with one of the following weigtages: 1%, 2%, 5%, 10%
- Ideally I would like to have 75% in large-cap/mid-cap stocks and 25% in small-caps. Obviously this will vary. Could be 70-30 as well.
- No more than 2% to each stock in the small-caps to begin with. Keep adding if the financial results of the business are always improving or at least stable.
- I would aim for 5% for each stock in the large-cap/mid-cap combinations and in combinations of 1%, 2% in small-cap stocks. So, that would get me to about 15 stocks in large-cap/mid-cap and to another 15 for the small-caps.
- Cox & Kings: Expensive valuations. I would be skeptical to invest in companies witha P/E of more than 15. 20 would be my soft limit and 25 would be a hard limit. There anyways are always exceptions. Check out MoneyChimp for various valuation methodologies.
- Maruti Suzuki: Seems to be at fair value.
- Nifty Junior ETF: As of now fair value I guess.
- OnMobile: There seem to be no dividends. EPS is more or less stagnant. I would expect a P/E of 10 to be fair.
- Petronet LNG: Looks fine.
- GAIL: Stagnant EPS. But looks fine.
- Sun TV: Fairly valued. But I didn't consider it because of all the politics surrounding it.
- Glodyne Technoserve: Looks good.
- Punjab National Bank: I also have it in my portfolio. Just a default stock. Think SBI is expensive, so just chose PNB and Corp. Bank as my investments in the financial space along with LIC Housing Finance.
- SpiceJet: No airlines for me. Too much competition. Until the subsidies for Air India are removed there's no way there would be a level playing field for any of the players. -ve operating cashflows in four out of the past five years. A negative cashflow from operations implies that one is spending more on expenses than one is getting back from sales (I think) which is never good for a business.
- Ashoka Buildcon: I have no idea. But one should really have a good look at the financials of all these infrastructure companies. I am also not sure if all of them report their financials honestly.
- Gujarat State Petronet: Looks like a good one.
- NMDC: Looks like a good one.
- SBI: Too expensive I guess compared to the next biggest public sector bank which is PNB. PNB has P/E of about 7 and SBI has 19.
- ICICI Bank: Don't have a very good opinion on this one. Would stay away from it. Expensive as well.
- Andhra Bank: Looks Ok.
- Magma Fincorp: Business seems Ok. But the price seems to be high.
- Bank of Baroda: Why so many banks? I can understand that it's hard to choose between so many banks. At the same it does not make sense to buy so many of them. Maybe a better idea might be to just buy one of the PSU Bank ETFs.
- Larsen Toubro: Right now, fairly valued I would say.
- Dewan Housing: Looks good. I also have +ve view about housing finance. One reason for my choice of LIC Housing Finance.
- Indian Bank: Again, another bank. I have no idea.
- South Indian Bank: Same thing. Looks a bit expensive.
- Federal Bank: Same thing.
- City Union Bank: I have seen one close to my house in Hyd. Was good. Looks good right now as well. But I might be having a familiarity bias. ;)
- Hindalco: Tata Steel sells at 7 P/E. Hindalco sells at 11 P/E. All metal stocks that I know always have been selling around 6 P/E. So, I would be suspect about Hindalco.
- Allahabad Bank: Same
- Maharashtra Seamless: Fairly priced I think. The sales haven't grown much in the past 5 years.
- Karur Vysya Bank: Fairly priced I think.
- Gateway Distripark: 18 P/E. Hmm... alarm bells. But I like the business though. There is growth in sales but no proportional increase in the EPS. Maybe other companies in the same line of business might be attractive.
- Gujarat Gas Company: Looks fairly priced. Like the business. Might buy around 12 P/E.
- Tata Power: 18 P/E. Expensive in my opinion. At least fairly valued.
- Jagran Prakashan: Fairly priced.
- Transformers & Rectifiers: For a market cap of 200 Cr. a 10 P/E sounds expensive. But looks like they are having a tough year. 30 EPS in the past two years has come down to 18 in the trailing twelve months (TTM). Hmm... should consider this carefully.
- Essar Oil: Profit in only of the last five years. How did you buy this one?
- Rain Comm: Interesting one. The consolidated EPS is close to 30 while the standalone EPS is only 0.83. Taking the consolidated EPS of 30, the stock is selling for cheap. Has a high debt/equity ratio of about 2 though.
- Dena Bank: Looks Ok.
- Tata Chem: With respect to the Consolidated EPS (CEPS), it's good.
- Sundaram Finance: Looks good.
- Vardhman Textiles: I like this one as well. Good one.
- Sterlite Industries: Looks Ok wrt CEPS. But the EPS always seems to be going down.
- Shriram Transport: Is good.
- Union Bank: Hmm... one more bank.
- Tata Steel: Good to buy I guess.
- Canara Bank: Looks Ok.
- Reliance Banking:
- Corporation Bank: I have this one. Think is Ok.
- Petron Engineering Construction: Hmm... Sales double but EPS becomes 4x in the past 4 years. At the present valuation, it looks good though.
- Kotak PSU Bank: So many banks and again the ETF?
- Nifty ETF: Valuation close to historical average. So, guess not really a strong buy at this time.
Ok, that's the end of my comments. ;)
@Chaitanya:
ReplyDeleteThanks for your comments. I totally agree that I have too many stocks. This mainly is due to my inability to analyse the companies in a good sector. I am planning to sell most of the banks and all the ETFs when the rate-cycle peaks. Yes, I should definitely reduce the no. of the companies I invest in.
I have similar opinion as yours regarding the aviation sector. I just coudn't resist the low valuations of spice-jet at the time I bought it.
Its a shame that I cannot make any qualified comments about your portfolio.